Bitcoin’s recent recovery streak may soon face a major test. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has climbed for three straight days ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC decision, with BTC trading around $93,500, significantly higher than last month’s low of $80,635.
But beneath the surface, Bitcoin’s charts are now flashing several red flags—patterns that historically point to sharp reversals. And with the Fed preparing yet another interest rate cut, the timing couldn’t be more critical.
Bitcoin’s Chart Structure Turns Risky Despite Recent Bounce
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been grinding upward as dip-buyers returned and traders positioned themselves for what is widely expected to be a 0.25% rate cut, the third reduction this year.
However, a closer technical breakdown paints a less optimistic picture.
The current rebound consists of two rising and converging trendlines—a structure that often forms before a bearish breakout. When these lines meet, the upward momentum usually fails, leading to a sharp downside move.
This structure forms what analysts recognize as a bearish wedge, a classic continuation pattern. It consists of:
- A vertical pole
- A narrowing symmetrical triangle
- A compression of price that often breaks downward
Adding to the concerns, Bitcoin printed a death cross just weeks earlier, created when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average. This is one of the most widely watched bearish signals in technical analysis and often precedes extended downturns.
The chart also shows that Bitcoin recently completed a double-top pattern, with a neckline around $107,420. Historically, the combination of a double top followed by a death cross is considered a strong warning of deeper downside.
A Drop to $80,637 Becomes a Key Price Target
If these bearish confirmation signals play out, the next critical support sits at $80,637—Bitcoin’s low from November.
Reaching this level would represent a 13% decline from current prices.
For bulls, the line in the sand is clear:
A decisive move back above the 50-day moving average near $97,000 would invalidate this bearish setup and reopen the path toward potential upside.
Why Bitcoin Could Still Fall After the FOMC Announcement
In theory, lower interest rates should benefit Bitcoin and risk assets. But in practice, markets don’t always behave according to the textbook—especially when expectations are already priced in.
1. Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
Bitcoin has rallied ahead of the expected rate cut.
That sets the stage for a classic scenario where traders sell the news once the decision is announced.
This behavior has already appeared in previous rate cuts—Bitcoin dropped after the Fed slashed rates in September.
2. A Hawkish Twist From the Fed
Even if the Fed cuts rates, policymakers may signal a more cautious outlook going forward.
A stance such as:
- cutting rates now,
- but signaling slower or no cuts ahead,
would be interpreted as hawkish, applying downward pressure on BTC.
3. Rate Cuts Could Reignite Inflation
Lower rates increase liquidity and spending.
If inflation ticks back up—even if Donald Trump appoints a more compliant Fed leadership—the central bank could be forced to adopt a more aggressive stance later.
That scenario would also hurt Bitcoin in the short term.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s technical structure is leaning into bearish territory, just as the market braces for a major macro catalyst. Multiple indicators—from a bearish wedge to a death cross—suggest that BTC could slide toward $80,637, unless bulls retake control above the $97,000 zone.
The FOMC decision may act as the trigger, not necessarily because of the cut itself, but due to market psychology and the Fed’s forward guidance.
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