GLOBAL MARKET — The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has dropped to 0 out of 100, signaling a state of extreme pessimism and market overselling within the global cryptocurrency sector. Reported in early November 2025, this marks the first time the metric has reached zero since January 2022.
Market Transition and Indicators
According to data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the drop suggests the market has transitioned from a late-bull phase into an early-bear market or consolidation period. This shift is supported by the fact that all 10 on-chain components used to calculate the score are currently performing below their respective trends.
The index reached this floor while Bitcoin’s price remained near $100,000, though the asset has recently fallen below its 365-day moving average of approximately $102,000. Technical analysts have identified further support levels at $91,000, $79,000, and $72,000.
Institutional and Whale Activity
The decline follows a significant reversal in institutional and corporate demand. U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.2 billion in outflows in a single week, contributing to a projected 56,000 BTC shortfall in demand for 2025.
Additionally, market data highlights several key shifts in participant behavior:
- Whales and Long-Term Holders: Large holders (1,000+ BTC) and long-term investors are reportedly continuing to distribute their assets.
- Exchange Disparity: A “negative gap” emerged on Coinbase, where the premium dropped to -167.8, indicating lower prices on the U.S. exchange compared to offshore platforms like Binance.
- Liquidations: A liquidation event on October 10 wiped out $20 billion in open interest.
Factors Driving the Downturn
Several fundamental factors have contributed to the score’s collapse. CryptoQuant identifies a contraction in stablecoin liquidity—specifically USDT—which has stagnated or seen negative growth. Furthermore, weakening spot trading volumes have left the market unable to absorb ongoing selling pressure.
Profitability metrics have also declined; the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has dropped, indicating that investors are currently holding less unrealized profit or are facing loss positions.
Historical Context: Bitcoin Bull Score Index
The following table compares the current market conditions to the two previous instances when the Bitcoin Bull Score Index hit zero. This helps contextualize the current “extreme pessimism” against historical bear market beginnings.
| Metric | January 2020 | January 2022 | November 2025 |
| Bull Score | 0 / 100 | 0 / 100 | 0 / 100 |
| Bitcoin Price | ~$7,200 | ~$42,000 | ~$100,000 |
| Market Phase | Pre-Halving / Early Pandemic | Start of “Crypto Winter” | Early-Bear / Consolidation |
| Key Driver | Low Liquidity | Interest Rate Hikes / Terra-Luna | Institutional Outflows ($1.2B) |
| On-Chain Health | Below Trend | Below Trend | All 10 Components Below Trend |
Understanding the 10 Components
The Bull Score is a composite of 10 distinct metrics. In November 2025, for the first time in nearly four years, every single one of these inputs signaled weakness simultaneously:
- MVRV Ratio: Dropped, indicating holders are in a loss or low-profit position.
- Stablecoin Liquidity: Stagnation in USDT growth.
- ETF Net Flows: Shifted to net selling ($1.2 billion weekly outflow).
- Exchange Activity: Price discount on Coinbase vs. Binance (Coinbase Premium at -167.8).
- Demand Growth: Forecasted shortfall of 56,000 BTC.
- Technical Momentum: Price fell below the 365-day moving average ($102,000).
Outlook and Critical Support Levels
The drop of this indicator to zero serves as a significant warning of a potential prolonged consolidation phase. CryptoQuant analysts emphasize that without a fresh surge in institutional demand, the market is likely to remain in this transition toward a bear cycle.
Investors are now closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to maintain the psychological support level of $91,000. If selling pressure from long-term holders persists and the net outflows from spot ETFs do not subside, technical scenarios suggest a realistic test of the $79,000 and $72,000 support zones. Historical data indicates that when the Bull Index hits zero, the market typically requires time to regain momentum, making risk management a primary focus for traders in the coming weeks.
